Professor Helmut Norpoth, from the Department of Political Science at Stony Brook University in New York, has correctly predicted the past five US presidents. Using a statistical model based on previous election results, he is predicting that Mr Trump will triumph next month. Professor Norpoth told i: “My forecast says that he’s going to win 52.5 per cent of the two-party vote, that would give Hillary 47.5 per cent. I attach something like 87 per cent certainty that he’s going to win.”
sesgadamente contra Trump
AP.- Donald Trump repeatedly rages that the media is biased against him, putting claims of press prejudice at the center of his campaign for president. Most voters — and not just those who are backing the Republican nominee — agree with him, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll.
Overall, 56 percent of likely voters say the media is biased against Trump, just 5 percent say it's biased in his favor and 37 percent say coverage is mostly balanced.
Eighty-seven percent of Trump's supporters see the media as biased against him, and even Hillary Clinton's supporters are more likely to see bias against Trump than bias in his favor, 30 percent to 8 percent. Sixty percent of Clinton's supporters see no bias in either direction.
LOS ANGELES TIMES.- Bruce Springsteen immortalized the nobility of men who once stood before the furnaces and the betrayals of a collapsing steel industry. His 1995 song “Youngstown,” a poetic elegy in a vast working-class canon, is still revered by the city that inspired it.
But many of the machinists, miners and laborers who embody Springsteen’s lyrics from the Rust Belt to the Appalachian coal fields have turned to the swagger of Donald Trump in a long-denied bid for redemption. Springsteen’s politics may have stayed liberal since he played Stambaugh Auditorium here two decades ago, but economic decline, foreign competition, crime and abandoned mills have turned many in Youngstown — notably blue-collar white men — toward the right-wing, isolationist politics of a billionaire reality-TV show star.
“I call it the pissed-off steel workers party. A lot of people like someone who causes trouble. That’s why Trump is so popular,” said Wilson, sitting in the dim of his hillside shop in the slipping away hours of a warm afternoon. “Why am I voting for him? He’s not Hillary Clinton.” He smiled, turned the radio low. “You know, my entire adult life I’ve been voting for the lesser of two evils.”
AMERICAN THINKER.- Donald Trump is going to win on November 8th and the moment when this election turned from seeming defeat to certain victory will be the least expected and one of the most derisively attacked moments of his campaign. During the third debate when Trump said on being asked if he would accept the election results, "I will look at it at the time" the election was his. The uproar on both sides of the political spectrum has been an avalanche of criticism; this was Trump at his worst, the dooming moment of a quixotic and egomaniacal campaign. Or was it?
Decisiveness and boldness don’t always result in a victory on the field of battle but indecisiveness and hesitation, in the moment of crisis, most assuredly will result in inglorious defeat. Trump has been called a lot of things, probably the most flattering among, even his allies, is that he is a good “entertainer.” For political acumen, he might be given a 2, and that would be the score given by his friends. But too many have all missed something that Trump has seen since the beginning.
Trump is reading something different, a mood and frustration in this country that is not just confined to some 32%. The country is heading in the wrong direction, we on the right know that, but in fact, almost 70% of Americans overall sense that. And that is not just an indictment of the Obama years; it is an indictment of the entire bipartisan political class.
This election is not being run for the pundits, the media, the conservative gadflies and hangers on, the consultants and wise thinkers who tut-tut continually on television about how Trump, “just can’t do it this way,” he must pivot and be “presidential” and discuss nothing but the issues.